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Walking with a longtime friend on a beautiful spring day in Upstate, New York.
The snow is gone, the trees are showing early signs of budding, and a light jacket is all you need to stay warm.
One problem with this scene - it was February. We should be on skis. There should be snow. It should be cold.
...
We shared anecdotes of what "real winter" was like growing up in the Adirondacks. Weeks of sub-freezing weather, snow all winter long, and inches of ice covering nearby Lake Champlain.
We expressed how lucky we were to experience "real winter".
Our children will not have the same frame of reference.
Their winters will be mild. Snow will be rain. Ice will be the outlier, not the norm.
Without experiencing how winters used to be - knowing how winters should be - is it possible for future generations to appreciate the impact of climate change? We are all subject to a shifting baseline. And one's perception is their reality.
Am I just shaking my fist at the sky, or are winters in our area really getting more mild? What does the data say?
First, the ice on Lake Champlain. It's marvelous.
Photo credit: Seven Days VT
The data is also stunning - Lake Champlain is not freezing like it used to. That change seems to pre-date my childhood, though (I was born in 1994).
"Back in my day" freezing temperatures were the norm.
How has that changed over generations?
My parents (1950's): 70% of winter days in the region were freezing
Me (1990's): 61%
My niece (2020's): 47%
Chart: Sam Necrason (author); Data source: weather.gov
Where data and narrative collide.
When producing the chart above, I made certain decisions to support my narrative.
For example, the data represents the percentage of winter days below freezing, rather than the percentage of total days.
"Winter" is loosely defined as 1/4 of a year (91.25 days).
The calculation is
X days below freezing divided by 91.25 days in a winter
rather than
X days below freezing divided by 365 days in a year
Looking at the percentage of total days in a year obfuscates the story that winters are getting warmer.
However, I believe that the chart on the right - the one that only considers "winter days" - is more defensible.
From a practical perspective, it's only "freezing" for about 1/4 of the year in our area.
The chart on the left adds noise to distract from the practical reality. A clear change becomes a little blip.
The two charts have the same layout. Same data source. Same facts.
The only thing different is the denominator - the baseline.
This is an example of how data and narrative can collide. One's perception becomes their reality. Do you see the chart on the left or right in your newsfeed?
Our warm winters not normal, and our climate is changing.
Dusting off my statistics textbook for one last observation.
On average, since 1950, our area has about 63 "freezing days" per year where the high temperature does not exceed 32° F.
An outlier year would have fewer than 35 freezing days.
Threre have been three outlier years since 1950: 2012, 2020, and 2023.
The threat or possibility of climate change is a misleading narrative.
The destruction is happening now. The reality is here, today.
Inaction is a decision that places immense pressure and uncertainty on future generations.
So what can I do?
Buy less stuff, eat more plants, take fewer flights, walk more places, compost, share, plant things, and take some time to breathe. In the aggregate, small choices amount to big signals.
Go outside and enjoy this planet we call home. 🌍
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